FINANCIAL AND COMERCIAL.
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SUNDAY, April 28, 1861.
The question of most interest to the commercial world at the present time relates to the supply of cotton. Under the general impression that this year’s cotton crop will be materially curtailed by the war, middling uplands have risen in New York to 14 cents a pound, and many operators look for much higher prices. Very serious apprehensions are entertained abroad on the subject. The British government is spending money freely in conveying experienced planters and agents of the Cotton Supply Association to various parts of India, where cotton may be grown. The French are granting bounties on the production of cotton in Algeria; steps are being taken to cultivate cotton more extensively than heretofore in Western and Southeastern Africa, Central America, and in Australia. It is pretty certain, however, that whatever the ultimate result of these efforts, they cannot, this year, or even the next, lead to the production of enough cotton to supply the wants of the civilized world. Next winter, there will be a general scarcity of cotton, if the supply from our Southern States should be cut off. The question of the day, therefore, is–will the war prevent the South growing and exporting cotton?
The prevailing impression among parties best qualified to judge is that, while the war must necessarily interfere with agricultural operations in the Southern States, it will not absolutely destroy this year’s cotton crop. We know that a large area of land has been planted, and that thus far the weather has been favorable. It is hardly likely that the cotton plantations will be the scene of conflicts. They are the last place in the world where a prudent general would lead a Northern army, and the well understood objects of the nation in its present uprising can be attained without disturbing many fields. How far the war may divert slaves from field labor remains to some extent an unsolved problem. Without the presence of a Northern army to incite them, it is not very likely that negro insurrections in the Gulf States will become so general or so formidable, this year, as to prevent altogether the hoeing and picking of cotton. In the border States the slaves are already running away in droves, and in the course of a few months the bulk of them may perhaps have found a free home in the North. But in the great cotton States––Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas––it is not so easy for a slave to escape beyond his master’s reach. Whatever happens, there will remain a large number of plantations, removed from the scene of conflict, which ought to yield almost an average crop if the weather be favorable. It must always be remembered that to the planter it is a matter of life and death to grow cotton and send it to market. A Southern planter, owning two hundred or five hundred slaves, must either feed them or prepare for the worst. He cannot discharge them as a Northern farmer would do in the like case. We may therefore rely upon it that, whatever happens, tremendous efforts will be made by planters throughout the South to produce cotton in spite of obstacles; and it is probably fair to infer that these efforts will result in the production of a crop which, though probably far short of the great crops of 1858, 1859, and 1860, will not compare unfavorably with the crops of ten years ago, and which the increased supplies from other sources, will not leave the manufacturing world destitute of the essential staple.
On Wednesday last the District Attorney notified the New York city banks not to pay any moneys to corporations or individuals in the rebel States. Within a few hours after the notification was served on the banks it was recalled, at the insistence of influential citizens, who urged that it world practically amount to repudiation, and that New York must not set an example of the kind. The recall was obviously wise. In peace or in war the banks and merchants of New York must fulfil their obligations and live up to the rules of honorable mercantile dealing. But there is no reason why the District Attorney should not prevent the transmission of money to localities held by the rebels. Indeed it is his duty to do so. But the way to prevent remittances to the South is not to threaten banks with prosecutions for treason, but to seize the moneys themselves in the hands of the carriers. On Friday last some $20,000 were drawn in specie from a city bank and sent to North Carolina.
Property of various kinds is arriving here by various channels from the South. Many rich men of the slave States are becoming disgusted with the mob law under which they are living, and seek a safe home at the North. We are led to believe that the exodus would be more general but for apprehensions–which are encouraged by the Southern demagogues–lest Southerners should be molested in their persons or property on arriving here. There is no ground whatever for these fears. Citizens of every state may come to New York freely with their property, and will enjoy the fullest protection from our laws and our authorities. The whole civil and military force of New York would be employed, if need were, to protect the persons and property even of citizens of South Carolina after their removal to this city. We cannot, of course, suffer supplies, munitions of war or money to be sent to the rebels who are in arms against the government, but once here, Southern property would be a good deal safer than it is in the rebellious States. There is no prospect here of forced loans, or mob law, or slave insurrections, or confiscations.
The following are the trade tables for the week:–
IMPORTS.
For the week. 1859. 1860. 1861.
Dry goods……………,,$1,748,473 1,708,488 393,061
General Merchandise... 3,080,734 2,446,765 1,710,926
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Total for the week… $4,829,297 4,150,253 2,103,987
Previously reported… 72,566,898 74,803,567 58,166,349
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Since January 1…….$17,396,105 79,043,820 58,270,336
EXPORTS OF PRODUCT AND MERCHANDISE.
1859. 1860. 1861.
For the week………...$1,184,760 1,536,424 2,082,470.
Previously reported....17,764,112 24,593,513 40,399,747
EXPORTS OF SPECIE.
1859. 1860. 1861.
For this week………..$1,680,743 1,774,767 1,000
Previously reported…10,790,661 3,765,263 2,410,044
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Since January 1…….$12,470,704 10,540,030 2,411,044
The bank specie reserve is probable again increasing, though little or no gold has lately been received from England. Last Monday the banks showed a reserve of $40,620,270, being a decrease for $1,144,478 from the week previous. Since then a California steamer has arrived with the usual remittance––nearly a million; gold continues to arrive from the mint. At the current rate of foreign exchange specie can be profitably imported from Europe. We may therefore, shortly begin to look for further arrivals of gold from that quarter. The bank loans stood last Monday at $124,701,259––an increase of over a million and a half above the previous week. The increase was caused by hypothecations of the new government loan. Businesses continue to contract; were it not for the government loans, the banks would find it difficult to keep up their discount line.
Money is rather dearer than it was a week ago. There is plenty of it–far more than is needed for the business of the country; but the actual outbreak of war causes capitalists to exercise unusual caution in the selection of paper and in the examination of collaterals. Failures occur daily among houses connected in trade with the South; and, on the other hand, the wholesale annihilation of the currency of most of the Western States, which has resulted from the depreciations in border State stocks, has naturally operated with great severity on houses connected with the West. The war is evidently going to play havoc with our jobbers. We quote call loans 5 per cent and under, where the collateral is undoubted; short first class paper, 5½ a 6½; long paper about 7 per cent; names not free from question all the way to 2 a 3 per cent per month.
Foreign exchange fell about one per cent last week, closing dull at the decline. There are good mercantile bills in market at 104½ a 105, and bankers’ bills at 105 a 106–the selling rate for the latter being about 105½. Francs are quoted 5.35 a 5.37½ for the best bills. At these rates, after allowing for freight, insurance, loss of interest and commissions, there is a profit upon the importation of gold from London.
The following table shows the course of the stock market during the past week and month:–
Mch. 30. Apl 6. Apl.13. Apl. 20. Apl. 27.
Missouri 6’s…………..66 1/6 63 58½ 40 40
N.Y. Central………….78½ 76 7/8 72¾ 68 73¼
Reading …..………….44½ 42 35 29 5/8 32¼
Erie……….…………..32 29¼ 24 17 21¼
Michigan Central……..58½ 55¾ 49 40 44½
South. guarant’d……...39 35½ 32 26½ 29½
Illinois Central………..81½ 77¾ 68 56 59¼
Galena………………...73 71½ 68½ 55 58½
Rock Island..………….57¾ 54¾ 48½ 34 37½
Toledo………………...36 33¾ 29 22½ 24
Panama………………..117 115 110 37½ 99½
Hudson River………….45¾ 42¼ 39¼ 34 36¾
Pacific Mail…………..85 ½ 83 77 54 70¼
The principal feature of the market last week was dulness. Prices fluctuate freely on the war rumors which reached the city from Baltimore and the South; yesterday they closed better or more favorable news, but there was very little real business done. The stocks of the border slave States are no lower than they were a week ago; Virginias are better. It is not a little surprising that people should be found willing to give forty cents on the dollar for the stocks of a State like Virginia, which, however the present contest may end, will be certain to be ruined by it. The destruction of the Norfolk Navy Yard and the Harper’s Ferry Arsenal, which establishments, between them gave support to many thousand Virginia families, is an indication of the ruin and devastation which war brings in its train. In a few days we shall begin to hear of wholesale stampedes of slaves from all parts of the State. If the war lasts many months, as it promises to do, the $250,000,000 worth of slaves which are, which are entered in the census as the leading item of property owner by citizens of Virginia, will not be worth much. As to harvests and agricultural and industrial operations, they are of course suspended, and will be neglected until peace is restored. To expect that, under these circumstances, the State of Virginia can pay her interest is absurd. The probability is that no more interest will be paid on the bonds of any border Slave state, and that such bonds are absolutely and wholly worthless. The Governor of Missouri is said to have diverted the money set aside for the payment of interest on Missouri bonds to the arming of a rebel force. The State government of Tennessee is suspected of flooding our market with bonds issued for a similar purpose, and authorized by the Legislature in secret session. Owners of Kentuckies, North Carolinas, &c., residing in those States are sending them here for sale at any price, in the belief that the secession movement has rendered them valueless. These considerations induced the Board of Brokers, a day or two since, to consider the propriety of striking from the list the stocks of rebel States. The proposition was laid over on the ground that there are too many outstanding contracts in these stocks; that their exclusion from the list would cause great confusion. It may be questioned, however, whether retaining them on the list may not some day cause at least equal confusion. In the desperate condition of the political leaders of such states as Missouri and Virginia, there is no guarantee that they may not issue fraudulent bond and send them for sale here. They are quite likely to repudiate all bonds held at the North. Is it right, under these circumstances, for the Board of Brokers to continue to be the instrument of possible frauds of this character? Could not a day be fixer after which no dealings in border slave State stocks shall be allowed? Meanwhile we caution the public against buying these stocks at any price. So far as we can judge, they are absolutely without any value whatever.
"Financial and Commercial," New York (NY) Herald, April 29, 1861, p. 5.